The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has entered its second month, evolving into a crisis that is hitting regional security, maritime trade and global energy markets at the same time. The conflict began on 28 February 2026 and, after four weeks of airstrikes, counterattacks and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of a wider escalation remains high.
The turning point came with the initial wave of US–Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, during which, according to reports, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. From that moment, the conflict shifted from a limited operation into an open war with broader military and political objectives.
Tehran responded with missiles, drones and direct pressure on global energy routes. Iran has used the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic lever, with restrictions on shipping affecting a corridor through which around 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply passes. The disruption has pushed energy prices higher and raised fears of a renewed inflation shock across the global economy.
The conflict has also expanded beyond Iran and Israel. It now spans multiple fronts, from attacks on US bases in the region to clashes involving Iran-aligned groups, including the Houthi movement. Tensions across the Persian Gulf and key shipping lanes have intensified, with the Houthis launching their first missile strike on Israel since the war began, signaling a broader regional escalation.
At the same time, Washington is seeking to frame its objectives as limited. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States could achieve its goals without deploying ground troops and suggested the operation could conclude within weeks. However, that assessment contrasts with the situation on the ground, where strikes continue and Gulf allies are calling not only for de-escalation but for a long-term weakening of Iran’s missile, naval and drone capabilities.
The human and economic toll is mounting. International reporting points to large numbers of civilian casualties in Iran and growing pressure on economies dependent on energy flows through Hormuz. After just one month, the war is no longer a contained military campaign but the opening phase of a broader crisis that could reshape the Middle East and global markets for months to come.